Every --incremental run claimed "kept its staged tree" and set
kept_upper=true at teardown — even when the run died before staging
created tree-upper, leaving a manifest that lied about the record being
a fork candidate and a message contradicting the disk. The retention
now follows the disk through upper_retention(requested, has_upper()):
a keep with a staged tree keeps it as before, a plain run drops it, and
a keep with nothing staged keeps the record as metadata + log with
kept_upper=false and says so ("no staged tree was created — the run
ended before staging"). The interrupt path records the same honest
state — failed outcome, kept_upper only if a tree exists — and the
SIGINT hook's message no longer claims a tree that is not there.